They say hindsight is 20-20. And since it’s now 2020, I figure I should look hindward in order to look forward. So, based on historical data and a host of anecdotal evidence, here are my Toronto real estate market predictions for 2020.
In the afterglow of the holidays, my family will spend January relaxing together in our cozy midtown home. We will smile at one another, grateful to share our small space and to have a roof over our heads.
Upon the first significant snowstorm of the year, the roof over our heads will begin to leak again. We will stop smiling at one another, significantly less grateful to share our small space together.
Like the three years prior, I will carefully suggest moving to a bigger home. My wife will carefully remind me that we cannot afford to move to a bigger home. I will carefully suggest that we take out a bigger mortgage, to which my wife will suggest that if I’m not careful, I will be moving out alone.
On her way home from work one day in May, my wife will drive past a home that is a better version of the home to which she is driving. She will then inform me that we better start looking for our own better home. We are back in the market.
Together we decide that, unlike last year, we will forego the help of our real estate agent and go it alone. The first open house we attend has three bedrooms, a main floor study, and our old agent glaring at us from across the open concept kitchen.
Now open to the concept of working with our agent again, we sit down in mid-June to talk budget. Together, we will agree upon a floor and ceiling that we are comfortable spending. Our agent will then show us a fabulous detached home with floor to ceiling windows. Our spending ceiling will suddenly become our floor and we will be fully detached from our original budget.
In late-August, we will decide to put an offer on the fabulous detached home. Before we list our current home, our real estate agent will recommend that we make some simple upgrades – a new backyard deck and kitchen cabinetry. My wife will suggest that we repair the leaky roof but I refuse, determined to leave that expense for the new owners.
Sometime around Labour Day, the fully detached home of our dreams will begin accepting offers. Determined not to get into a bidding war, we will make an offer slightly above asking, and slightly below the offers of the other eleven people determined not to get into a bidding war. The fully detached home of our dreams will remain exactly that.
My wife and I will spend October and November grieving the loss of our bigger, better home.
But we should’ve known better: the Toronto market is nothing if not predictable, and this year promises to be no different. Those of us already in the market can’t afford to move up, and for many more Torontonians, the idea of owning a first home remains out of reach.
So as the winter approaches again, my family will spend December relaxing together in our cozy midtown home. We will smile at one another, grateful yet again to share our small space with the new deck and cabinetry and to have a roof over our heads.