Real estate forecasts for 2021 began coming in as early as last June, a moment in time when no one was quite sure what was in store for the remainder of 2020.
Of course, what we know now — six months after RBC’s first foray into what housing in 2021 would like — is that the market shifted into hyperdrive for the final half of the year, setting record after record for both sales and average prices.
Hindsight in 2020, or something like that.
Of course, knowing has never stopped anyone from predicting, so we’ve rounded up 14 forecasts that attempt to reckon with the 2021 housing market and all that it might bring with it. From falling prices to increased levels of competition — and everything in between — here are a collection of thoughts, theories, and insights from agents, banks, experts, and insiders for the next 12 months.
CMHC’s famous forecast arrived in the worst moments of the pandemic’s first wave, predicting what would be an unprecedented 12-month drop in prices between the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021.
As the first wave continued to rage on, and no sight of a full market return was yet on the horizon, RBC looked ahead and saw nothing but bad news.
Canadian Home Prices Forecast to Fall By 7% in 2021: Moody’s — September 2020
Economic research firm Moody’s Analytics looked into their housing tea leaves and saw that the market’s “vigour” would fade in the months to come as they expected high unemployment and lower incomes to restrain Canadian buyers’ return to the market.
Picking up on the COVID-related trend of urban dwellers fleeing to suburbia, RBC suspects shoeboxes in the sky will continue to slip from the heights of value.
Top Canadian Real Estate Trends to Look For in 2021 — October 2020
5 Mortgage and Housing Market Predictions for 2021 — December 2020
James Laird, co-founder of Ratehub.ca, looks into his crystal ball and sees low-interest rates and no new mortgage regulations keeping the housing market strong. Except for condos. Poor, poor condos.
5 Canadian Housing Market Predictions for 2021 — December 2020
Lauren Haw, CEO of Zoocasa, tackles rentals, mortgage rates, the Prairies, and 18-hour cities as she peers into the future of Canadian real estate.
Ontario is the only province in the country that isn’t projected to see an increase in housing sales activity through 2021.
Average Ontario Home Prices Could Rise More Than 16% in 2021 — December 2020
For 2021, CREA has predicted that there will be 221,220 home transactions in Ontario, a decline of 3.3% from 2020 levels. However, average home prices are expected to climb a whopping 16.3% to land at $823,656.
Average Toronto Home Prices Forecast to Rise Another 6% in 2021 — December 2020
With average Toronto home pries having already risen 12% (year-over-year) in the first 10 months of 2020, RE/MAX doesn’t see the train slowing down anytime soon.
In which 19 Canadian economists participate, none of which “currently view housing affordability positively.”
Royal LePage believes in the price of your home going up next year unless that home has fewer than two storeys are is often referred to as a ‘condo’.
Rent is expected to see only a modest rise over the next 12 months, keeping average rental rates well below 2019 values. But 2022 is forecast to bring double-digit gains to the rental market.
Real estate agents predict good things for the real estate market. Surprise.